Europe is really having a lost decade

I am sick of reading about Europe’s lost decade. For example, in the UK Guardian article (July 27, 2012) – Spanish recession to last until 2014, IMF warns – the economics editor Larry Elliot says that the IMF is “Predicting a lost decade of growth for the eurozone’s fourth biggest economy”. The lost decade terminology emerged to describe the experience of Japan in the 1990s after its spectacularly damaging property crash. But I think it is offensive to use the term in relation to the Eurozone crisis. We are not seeing a lost decade emerge Japanese-style. Rather, we are witnessing a self-imposed humanitarian disaster driven by the ideological arrogance of the Euro elites (aided and abetted by the OECD and IMF). The experience of Japan in the 1990s was nothing compared to what these elites are doing in the name of neo-liberalism. Journalists should stop making the comparison and, instead, call the current crisis in Europe for what it is.

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British solution to unemployment – make them work for free

There was a story in the UK Guardian yesterday (July 29. 2012) – Million jobless may face six months’ unpaid work or have benefits stopped – that described how the failed neo-liberal British government is following the path that the conservatives followed in Australia in attempting to “manage” the unemployment that their flawed policy regime created. The Australian approach has failed dramatically and imposed considerable hardship on the most disadvantaged citizens in our midst. The same approach is unfolding in Britain and it to is already looming as a failure.

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Europe – one step forward … but so many backward

I am in transit most of today and so have very limited time to write. An ECB Executive Board member, one Jörg Asmussen, gave a speech at the European Policy Centre in Brussels on July 17, 2012 – Building deeper economic union: what to do and what to avoid – where he admitted that the European policy leaders “had made mistakes in the way economic policies and governance were managed inside the monetary union”. I thought that was an understatement but credit for the admission. However, his speech was then steered towards “how best to” strengthen “(p)olicies and governance” – “(w)hat to do and what to avoid”. When he mentioned that the “six pack” and the Fiscal Compact constituted “significant progress” towards what to do and what to avoid I concluded he hasn’t learned much at all from the huge mistakes that the policy elites in Europe have made. The suggestion for a fiscal union is definitely a step forward but the way in which this idea is being constructed represents several steps backwards. The Europeans seem intent on extinguishing their democracies.

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Neo-liberals on bikes …

I had an interesting conversation with a lunch visitor today about Germany (he lived and studied there) and its role in the Eurozone crisis. Yes, we talk economics even at times of rest! We discussed some of the events leading up to the Euro crisis and the important role played by the so-called progressive political parties in Germany. The conservative Christian Democrats are sounding like lunatics at the moment with the “You will have austerity and enjoy it” mantras. The focus on their harsh and destructive stance supporting fiscal austerity has taken the spotlight off the real culprits – the SPD and the Greens. We should never forget the role that they played – over the period of the Gerhard Schröder’s federal government (1998-2005) – in creating the pre-conditions that have ensured the crisis will be long and very damaging. We should also remember that Green parties have developed a tendency to be “neo-liberals on bikes” as a means of gaining power. The problem is that once they are pedalling in that direction they lose the capacity to pursue truly green policies, which extend beyond the remit of having clean building codes and sound urban design.

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The Eurozone is both a spectacular failure and a spectacular success

One of the ways I judge whether an economy is working is whether it is able to provide enough work for those who desire it (both in number of jobs and hours of work). That is, an economy that generates purely frictional unemployment with underemployment eliminated. I know that there are many that think that emphasis is old-fashioned but those opinions are mostly provided by those that have secure, well-paid jobs. The latest Eurostat European Labour Force data, May 2012 shows that the policy framework in Europe is failing dramatically against my benchmark with the unemployment rate is now at its highest level in the Eurozone since the currency union began. I judge the Eurozone to be a failed “state”, in need of a dramatic change in policy approach. At the same time I consider it to be spectacularly successful. Time to explain …

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Euro leaders need to eat humble pie at this summit – but they won’t!

The European leaders are preparing for yet another summit, where the good food will be served and the fine wine will be flowing. One loses count of how many summits there have been since the crisis began. They all promise to deliver the solution but usually end up with some weak worded document about fiscal integration and growth, which quickly descends into increasingly zealous statements about obedience to fiscal rules and monitoring and punishment frameworks and, if you will excuse me, the whole Spanish Inquisition thing! I don’t mean to malign the Spanish here. Rather just calling up historical patterns of behaviour that always end in pain and suffering. The latest signs are that the ECB is continuing to keep the whole boat from sinking while the Germans continue to claim they are the victims. The Euro leadership continues to be obsessed with rules. The financial markets continue to punish the whole setup. Another day in the European crisis. There is a collective denial operating at present and until facts are faced up to (which might require some humble (vegetarian) pie being eaten rather than what is probably on offer in Rome during the current summit) – nothing much is going to be achieved other than rising unemployment and social dislocation. This is truly a mad situation.

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The Euro crisis is all their own doing

I gave an interview today for SBS (Special Broadcasting Service), which is a national multicultural radio/television network in Australia. They wanted to know whether I thought the crisis in Europe had now stabilised given the Greeks avoided “chaos” by voting for New Democracy and more austerity. They also noted that the financial markets were turning on Spain and Italy. I responded by suggesting their question answered itself and that it would be better not to be seduced by the Euro elite spin that Greece is now firmly in the Eurozone and markets will stabilise with austerity. The reality is that the election outcome in Greece just ensures the Greek people will have to endure more debilitating austerity and their growth prospects are virtually zero. In that sense, they were let down by Syriza who promised the impossible – no austerity but retention of the Euro. Given the design of the EMU and the conduct of the ECB, as the currency-issuer, within that monetary union, austerity will be anti-growth and the problem will spread. But then the EC President Barroso is sick of outsiders lecturing the Europeans on how to run their economies. He said today – “this crisis was not originated in Europe”. It all depends on which crisis one is referring to. The Europeans have concocted their own crisis which made the initial “flu” originating in the US turn into something much more deadly. They are totally culpable in this and appear to require external education given the ham-fisted attempts they have made to solve the issue. I told SBS that the solutions proposed and implemented by the Euro elites to the non-problem merely exacerbate the actual problem which is the Euro itself.

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When 50 per cent youth unemployment is (apparently) protecting the grand kids

Over the last week, a Londoner and a Glaswegian have publicly embarrassed themselves with statements made about the current economic situation. One is an academic historian who hasn’t fully understood history. The other a politician who is seeking to deny the obvious and somehow blur his own culpability in driving the British economy back into a double-dip recession. I guess the smokescreen approach works if yesterday’s Greek vote is anything to go by. I saw a headline in Bloomberg this morning which said that “Greece avoids chaos …”, which prompted me to wonder what chaos might look like if it is not hospitals unable to get access to essential supplies, a government killing its private sector by cutting spending and not paying legitimate bills, and an unemployment rate creeping towards 25 per cent and 50 per cent for youth. The Greeks were bombarded it seems with wilful lies and even then the conservatives on just led the vote count from their main anti-austerity rival. In all the denials and bluster, what I know categorically is that in the real world where we all live – sustaining rates of youth unemployment above 50 per cent – is definitely not protecting the grandchildren.

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Selective versions of history, driven by a blinkered ideology, always fail

I read this New York Times article (June 9. 2012) – Europe Needs a German Marshall Plan – by a history professor at Harvard Charles S. Maier with some interest. And then a few days later (June 12, 2012) – the other end of the spectrum appeared – Why Berlin Is Balking on a Bailout – written by the conservative (but difficult to stereotype) German economics professor Hans-Werner Sinn. The two articles demonstrate that selective versions of history always fail, especially when they are overlaid and driven by a blinkered ideology that prevents a full understanding of why things happen. The Harvard historian understands how European reconstruction occurred and has articulated what that means for the current European malaise. The German economics professor, imbued with Ordo-liberalism, cannot see beyond his blinkers.

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Spain bank bailout – fails to address the problem

Its a public holiday in Australia – Queen’s Birthday – so all is quiet. Why the Queen of England is also the Queen of Australia and our Head of State is one of those puzzling things that escape logic. Anyway, for the record, the latest Eurozone development – the request of a 100 billion euro bailout from the Spanish government – does not address the major problem facing the Eurozone – the Euro itself. The intransigence of the EU elites has meant that they are unwilling to reform the poorly designed European monetary system and seem to think that a sequence of band-aid remedies which only buy a little time without addressing the main issue demonstrates leadership. Meanwhile, the real economies deteriorate further and unemployment rises. The current policy proposals that are abroad in the Eurozone, are, in my view, the anathema of leadership.

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