Today I got around to reading a report – Australia’s Productivity Challenge – which was released last week (February , 2011) from the Grattan Institute, a new research organisation in Australia that aims to provide evidence-based insights into social and economic issues in Australia. The Report is interesting because it exposes some of the bigger lies that are abroad about how well the Australian economy is faring. I have consistently been arguing (over the last 15 odd years) that the neo-liberal policy onslaught that has aimed to erode the power of workers viz capital and create a desperation among the unemployed (making income support harder to get) have created a dumbed down economy – racing to the bottom. One manifestation of this prediction was that productivity would fall as the impact of the budget surpluses (reduced public investment) and legislative changes too their toll. The Report shows that this future is upon us – we are living a delusion – being propped up by China. That is not a sustainable future.

In recent weeks I have received many curious E-mails about Japan all asking the same question – if net exports are positive and households saving are in decline, how come the budget deficit is so big? It is a good question and the answer relates to developing a good understanding of the components of the National Accounts and the way they interact. As I explain here, the private domestic sector is increasing its saving in Japan but it is all down to the corporations sitting on huge piles of retained earnings and reducing their investment. What these trends tell anyone who appreciates the way in which the macro sectors interact is that sustained budget deficits are required in Japan and any move to austerity would be disastrous.

A Reuters market analyst (John Kemp) has created a stir by effectively declaring that the global economy is governed by some global NAIRU – a non-accelerating rate inflation rate of unemployment – such that the advanced economies cannot reduce their unemployment rates by expansionary fiscal policy and major structural reforms are needed. In a recent article – Mind the global output gap – he argues that “(e)scalating food and fuel prices are a sign the global economy is approaching full resource utilisation and the limits of sustainable output”. He claims that the “high unemployment and idle factories” in the advanced economies are not a sign of a “cyclical lack of demand’ but rather reflect “structural shifts”. From a policy perspective this is natural rate theory on a global scale and effectively denies that sovereign governments can influence domestic demand and real output (within their own policy boundaries) through aggregate demand management. This is the ultimate neo-liberal denial of the effectiveness of fiscal policy. It doesn’t stand scrutiny as you might expect.

If you watch the 1937 cartoon – I Wanna Be a Sailor – it doesn’t take much imagination to think of the first two young parrots on the perch who are being taught their “skills” by a somewhat vexed mother parrot to be mainstream economists and the financial commentators who parrot these economists. Repeat after me: Polly wants a cracker – the Budget deficit is on an unsustainable trajectory – Polly wants a cracker – there is a mountain of public debt that threatens America’s future – Polly wants a cracker. If only these economists would take the lead of the third little parrot being coached by his mother. When he is exhorted to recite the mindless mantra that is expected of him he says “I don’t want a cracker see, I wanna be a sailor like my pop … see” … we need more commentators who will ask the right questions – challenge the politicians and their lackeys to explain what they mean rather than talk as if it is too complex for us to comprehend. It is not complex at all – spending equals income – if the private sector goes on holiday the public sector better be around town. If the private sector stays on holidays – the public deficit will persist. Otherwise – recession occurs and unemployment increases. The problem is that the mainstream commentators and the economists that provide them with the copy haven’t got off the perch yet and recite the same mindless stuff day-in, day-out. Polly wants a cracker.

Its all weather today with severe winter storms giving grief to people (and some friends) in the US at present. Closer to home Northern Queensland, fresh from being flooded, will be hit later tonight by Tropical Cyclone Yasi which is now classified as a Category 5 and will have winds up to 300 kms per hour. My friends up in Townsville are staying calm though. Down here in Newcastle it has been around 40 degrees Celsius for the third day now with no real change coming. So weather extremes – and yes I think they are becoming more pronounced but I am an economist so that is just my uninformed (non climate change sceptic) opinion. But today I am writing about a speech the Australian Prime Minister gave to CEDA yesterday (February 1, 2011) that exposed her lack of understanding of how the macroeconomy works. The problem is that I suspect no-one else in the room who listened would have thought that her message was fundamentally inconsistent. The lesson is that cannot have more jobs by cutting spending despite what the Prime Minister thinks.