I am all done writing letters – at least for today. I forgot to send both. I noted someone mentioned that he had never read any admissions of error from me. True enough. Over the course of my academic career I have made many predictions and none have turned out to be qualitatively wrong (sometimes the quantum us shaky but the direction is correct). But I am not trying to sell tickets for myself. Economists like me who comment regularly on current affairs are always subject to empirical scrutiny. So I am regularly putting my neck on the line – in written word (blog, Op-Eds etc) and speech (presentations, media interviews etc). So far so good. I note that a correct empirical observation doesn’t mean the underlying theoretical explanation which might have motivated the prediction is correct. But it is a lot better than missing the empirical boat altogether and suggests that there is some worth in the theoretical framework being employed. From a personal perspective the current period of economic policy is very shattering (if you share my values about the dignity of work etc). But from an intellectual perspective, as an economic researcher, the current period is very interesting. It is providing us with real world data which directly relates to theoretical statements made by economic schools of thought. So I am keeping a running tally of how the laboratory rats are going? You can judge which theoretical structure you consider useful yourself when thinking about what is happening at present.