I have been ‘at it’ for decades now but it never ceases to amaze me how mainstream macroeconomic analysis is carried out and the way the public just accepts the conclusions without understanding the basis on which the analysis generates those conclusions. Chapter II in the BIS Annual Economic Report (released June 28, 2026) – High public debt and shifting financial markets: challenges for central banks – exemplifies this point. The conclusions are rather stark but they all flow on some key assumptions that could be varied at any time by the government, which would nullify the conclusions. In other words, the projections of crises and monetary emergencies are all predicated on the assumption that the government would not step in with its unique capacities to prevent the catastrophe. In what world would we think that would happen? Not the real world, and the GFC and pandemic are recent examples where the alleged constraints are jettisoned by government in the blink of an eye.