Australian labour market – unemployment rises sharply – hard to reconcile with RBA’s excess demand claim

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (March 19, 2026) – Labour Force, Australia – for February 2026 – which showed that the labour market had gone backwards. While employment growth remained positive, full-time work fell. The participation rate rose, which in some situations indicates a positive outlook as workers re-enter the labour market to take advantage of the increased employment opportunities. In this case, I think it signals more desperation as cost-of-living pressures rise, given that a lot of older workers came back into the labour market looking for work. Unemployment rose sharply (0.2 points) to 4.3 per cent. Together with underemployment, there are now 10.1 per cent of available labour not being used it is ludicrous to talk about Australia being close to full employment. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present. The RBA’s claim that there is significant excess demand in the overall economy, which they used on Tuesday to justify a further rate hike, is hard to reconcile against this data.

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