Earlier this week, the German statistical agency, De Statis released – Press release No.316 of 19 August 2024 – which confirmed that Germany continues to run policy settings that undermine the viability of the common currency. During the pandemic, Germany’s trade surplus declined significantly and the mainstream commentariat all pronounced that Germany had shifted direction and had finally learned that running an obsessive, export-led strategy that relied on suppression of domestic demand and increasing trade deficits elsewhere was fraught. Such a strategy had ensured the GFC was worse in Europe than elsewhere. The problem with that narrative is that it was wrong. The declining trade surpluses were driven by the temporary cost increases (mostly energy) that followed the pandemic and the price gouging by OPEC. The latest trade data shows that the economy has absorbed those shocks and is once again moving into large export surpluses that not only violate EU rules but also will further promote defensive strategies among its trading partners.