Australia’s growth rate declines further and danger of recession increases on the back of the policy squeeze

Today (March 6, 2024), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, December 2023 – which shows that the Australian economy grew by just 0.2 per cent in the December-quarter 2023 and by 1.5 per cent over the 12 months (down from 2.1 per cent). If we extend the September result out over the year then GDP will grow by 0.8 per cent, well below the rate required to keep unemployment from rising. GDP per capita fell for the third consecutive quarter and was 1 per cent down over the year. This is a rough measure of how far material living standards have declined but if we factor the unequal distribution of income, which is getting worse, then the last 12 months have been very harsh for the bottom end of the distribution. Households cut back further on consumption expenditure growth. Moreover, there is now a very real possibility that Australia will enter recession in the coming year unless there is a change of policy direction. Both fiscal and monetary policy are squeezing household expenditure and the contribution of direct government spending, while positive, will not be sufficient to fill the expanding non-government spending gap. At the current growth rate, unemployment will rise. And that will be a deliberate act from our policy makers.

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British government designs fiscal policy within a flawed framework – result = poor policy

This week, the UK Chancellor releases the latest fiscal statement (aka ‘the budget’) and will also have a eye to the general election which must be held before January 28, 2025. One would expect the government would stall the announcement and delay the election for as long as is possible, given the current situation and the cumulative impacts of 12 years of Tory rule, which are plain to see at all levels of British society. All the talk is of tax cuts, that typical ‘sugar hit’ approach to winning votes that soon works it way out of the system. The debate as to what the British government should now be doing is clouded, as these debates are always clouded, by the input of organisations such as the Office of Budget Responsibility, which claims its charter is to “to examine and report on the sustainability of the public finances”, yet consistently provides input which is irrelevant to the substance of the issue and just feeds the flawed political scrum. In the end, the policy choices are not based on the actual opportunities and threats that are available to and confront the currency-issuing government but rather a fictional mindset that all the players are trapped within.

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