Australia March quarter National Accounts – looking ugly

Today’s Australian Bureau of Statistics – Australian National Accounts – for the March-quarter 2013, shows that real GDP growth was 0.6 per cent, unchanged from the Dcember-quarter 2012. The annualised growth rate of 2.4 per cent is now well below the trend rate between 2000 and 2008 and there is now a 4.2 per cent gap between actual growth and trend. This will widen in coming quarters and it is the reason the unemployment rate is rising. The stunning reversal of fortunes in the leading mining state of Western Australia is a feature of today’s data release. It is now in recession. The strong mining states (WA, NT) are now converging on the poorly performed East Coast economies. Much is being made of the contribution of Net exports (1 percentage point) but most of that (0.7 points) arose from a decline in imports as a result of the collapse in capital goods investment (mining related). Public Investment also dragged growth by 0.9 percentage points indicating that fiscal austerity is a major reason for the output gap. Overall, the outlook is decidedly ugly.

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