Australian labour market takes a backward step

I regularly warn against using the observations from one month to tell a story given that the data jumps around a lot at this frequency over time. It is clear that there is a lot of month-to-month variation in the data at present. The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (September 18, 2025) – Labour Force, Australia – for August 2025, which reveals that the slowdown that has been signalled for some months and was interrupted by last month’s stronger result appears to have reasserted itself. Employment fell overall as did the participation, which saved the unemployment rate from rising. Without the fall in the participation rate, the official unemployment rate would have been 4.4 per cent (rounded) rather than its current official value of 4.2 per cent. That means some workers are likely to have moved into hidden unemployment (outside the labor force) as job opportunities have stalled. Underemploymentfell 0.1 point, which was surprising given the significant loss of full-time employment. I expect a revision to this result next month. It remains a fact that with 9.9 per cent of available labour not being used it is ludicrous to talk about Australia being close to full employment. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.

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Terrestrial water storage capacity is declining fast and is hardly getting any attention

I read some disturbing research over the weekend about the rapidly declining terrestrial water storage (TWS) that is now becoming a global issue with drying regions linking up to form mega-drying areas that will be nearly impossible to reverse. While global warming gets a lot of attention in the media the surface water issue is not very well understood by the population, although it augurs devastation. I am working on a project at present that is focusing on new land use forms for the production of food and construction materials. The TWS problem is a central consideration in that it is being driven by poor land management and hopelessly inefficient and damaging agricultural practices, particularly those involved in producing animal protein. There are solutions but tell the next Greenie you meet tucking into some meat product that they have to stop eating that form of protein and see the reaction. That will tell you about how difficult it will be for societies to adapt and change.

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US Bureau of Labor Statistics revisions are not some arbitrary act but an attempt at making the data as accurate as possible

Last Tuesday (September 9, 2025), the US Bureau of Labor Statistics published a news release – Preliminary benchmark revision for March payroll employment is -911,000 (-0.6%) – which told us that its employment estimates for the current year are likely to be significantly overstated. Given that the BLS has been under intense political scrutiny in recent months, with the US President recently sacking the Bureau’s head, I expect some noise from the conspiracy types to accompany this preliminary statement from the BLS. The fact is that when we undertake the adjustment process that the BLS deploys (explained below), the average monthly change in non-farm employment between March 2024 and March 2025 will turn out to be around half the current estimate – 71 thousand as opposed to 147 thousand per month. In other words, when the revisions are finalised in February 2026, the labour market will be assessed as having started slowing considerably in 2024 and continuing into 2025. I explain all this in the following discussion but emphasise that the process of revision is not some arbitrary act to make some politicians look bad. It is actually a process that upholds full transparency and is a regular activity that national statistical agencies undertake to make the data they publish as accurate as possible.

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Some discussion about taxation

Over the weekend, I was a presenter at a Fabian’s Society meeting which sought input on ‘alternative taxation policies’ under the general tenet of the need for the Australian government to raise revenue to ensure a socially just society. The other presenter was John Quiggin and I think we provided a good complementarity for the relatively large audience (for a Saturday afternoon – with football finals in progress!). Of course, my opening salvo was to reject the fundamental premise of the workshop – which is a premise that progressive commentators and activists seem unable to shed to the detriment of their argument. I indicated to the audience at the outset that the aim of taxation is generally not to raise more revenue for government, but, instead, to ensure the non-government sector has less spending capacity. More is not less. That is a fundamentally different frame in which to discuss the topic and I closed the workshop by suggesting that one of the single most important things that progressives can learn is to stop using terms like ‘taxpayers’ money’ when discussing fiscal policy. Using those type of terms immediately frames the discussion against progressive goals.

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Recent podcast and some thoughts on trade

I don’t have much time today as I am travelling a lot in the next few days for various work commitments. But recently I did a podcast for Real Progressives in the US about trade and the external economy. I started the discussion with an interesting quote that I will reproduce here. Regular readers will know that there are several so-called progressive critics of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) who focus on the way we construct the external economy. They claim it is ridiculous to think of exports as a cost and imports as a benefit and extend that argument to narratives about the advantages of maintaining a strong export-oriented manufacturing sector. Whether we want a strong manufacturing sector is a quite separate discussion from the trade issue. That is what the podcast was about.

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Australia national accounts – stronger economic growth in June-quarter 2025

The Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Australian National Accounts: National Income, Expenditure and Product, March 2025 – today (September 3, 2025), which shows that the Australian economy grew by 0.6 per cent in the June-quarter 2025 (up from 0.2 per cent) and by 1.8 per cent (up from 1.3) over the 12 months. GDP per capita growth turned positive after several consecutive negative quarters. Household consumption expenditure growth strengthened and led the strong growth in domestic demand. Overall, a surprisingly robust result.

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The struggles to teach political economy and the aftermath – we all lost

I started my undergraduate studies in economics in the late 1970s after starting out as an Arts student in the early 1970s studying philosophy, politics, history, anthropology and statistics. The Vietnam War movement and other things interrupted my first years of studies and it wasn’t until the Federal government introduced the National Employment and Training (NEAT) scheme in 1974 that I was able to get some government support to resume my studies, this time as an economics student combining statistics, politics, law and economics. The major student rebellions of the late 1960s around the world had ended and the Monetarists had seized control of the academy, which led to major shifts in the way economics was taught. The world is much poorer as a result of these changes and the end-game problems of neoliberalism that we are all struggling with now – housing crises, welfare retrenchments, aftermath of privatisation and outsourcing, casualised labour markets offering poorly paid jobs with precarious outlooks, rising income and wealth inequality, and the climate crisis to name just a few of the individual crises that are now converging into the poly crisis we are enduring now – are directly related to the shifts in the economics profession in the 1970s. I was a student then young academic through this early period and when I read an article in the Australian Financial Review this morning (September 1, 2025) – Why my dad fought against ‘Albonomics’ at Sydney University (usually behind a paywall) – I could hardly believe what I was reading.

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Australia’s unemployment rate is well above any reasonable full employment level

Central banks around the world tightened interest rates starting late 2021 in some places and there was a systematic period of hikes over the next year or more despite the inflationary pressures mostly showing signs of abatement as a result of factors that were not sensitive to the rising interest rates. In Australia, the RBA started hiking in May 2022 and continued through to November 2022, despite the inflation rate peaking in December 2022. The RBA consistently claimed the labour market was too tight and that the unemployment rate was below the unobservable Non-Accelerating-Rate-of-Unemployment (the so-called NAIRU), which meant to stabilise inflation in their eyes, they had to force unemployment higher. Their logic was not consistent with reality and tens of thousands of workers have lost their jobs over the last few years as a result of deliberate policy choices all for nothing. The inflation outbreak was not the result of excess spending and came down on its own accord as the COVID constraints abated and supply chains worked around Putin and all that. In this blog post I produce some research that further cements that conclusion. There are some technical details but essentially the narrative should be easy to follow.

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Cryptocurrencies are not currencies

I often get asked about cryptocurrency. And I immediately become bored. The sort of claims that people have made about this phenomenon, which is historically just another speculative asset, are over-the-top to say the least. There are two realities that seem to be ignored. First, we already have mainstream digital money and have had for a long time, before cryptocurrencies emerged. For example, when the central banks credit reserve accounts held by commercial banks as part of the daily payments system clearing, digitial transactions take place. Similarly, when you go on-line and conduct some bank transactions shifting deposits to other owners (paying bills etc) you are using digital currency. Second, cryptocurrencies are not currencies nor are they money, which makes their name rather misleading. In fact, they are just another speculative, non-money asset that are not backed by anything so we say that the fair value is zero. There is an intermediate asset that has emerged – the so called – Stablecoin – which differs from cryptocurrencies, in that the asset is specifically pegged in some way to some national currency or basket of assets. However, the hype surrounding stablecoins is similar to that which has accompanied the evolution of cryptocurrencies, the point being that the ‘stable’ bit is not backed in anyway by any government guarantees. I also distinguish this class of non-monetary assets from the recent developments in central banking known as – Central Bank Digital Currency – which is really just an extension of the already myriad of digital transactions that central banks conduct every day.

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