Slight rise in Australian inflation rate driven by factors that do not justify further rate hikes

Today (October 25, 2023), the Australian Bureau of Statistics released the latest – Consumer Price Index, Australia – for the September-quarter 2023. The data showed a slight uptick in the quarterly rate of inflation with the CPI rising by 1.2 per cent (up 0.4 points), largely due to petrol price rises and rental increases. The latter is, in part, driven by the previous RBA interest rate hikes – so monetary policy causing inflation rather than reducing it. The annual inflation rate, however, was significantly lower again in the September-quarter as the supply-side drivers abate – down to 5.4 per cent from 6.1 per cent in the June-quarter. While the RBA has been threatening further rate hikes if the new data showed an increase in the inflation rate, there is nothing in this quarterly release that would justify that. The fuel prices are not sensitive to domestic monetary policy and further rate hikes will make the rental situation worse.

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