US labour market weakening
The Federal Reserve Bank of America has been publishing a new indicator – the Labor Market Conditions Index (LMCI) – which is derived from a statistical analysis of 19 individual labour market measures since October 2014. It is now being watched by those who want to be the first to predict a rise in US official interest rates. If the latest data from the LMCI is a guide to potential interest rate movements then they won’t be rising any time soon. I updated my gross flows database today and also the job openings and quits database. The gross flows analysis suggests that while there has been improvement in the US labour market in the last year, in recent months that improvement is slowing.