Saturday Quiz – September 12, 2015 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

Read more

Friday – when banks were banks

It is my Friday lay day and I am quite distracted with other commitments. But at the London presentation a few weeks ago, I mentioned that I would scrap central banks and consolidate their functions within a division of what we now think of as Treasury departments (or Finance Ministries). Whenever you say that there is a ridiculous response from those who claim to know something about banking along the lines of either, it would cause hyperinflation or that the politicians cannot be trusted. Both arguments are as I say – ridiculous. There are some things that central banks do that are necessary, for example, maintain financial stability through the integrity of the payments system. They also, depending on the nation, manage foreign reserves although that function is unnecessary if exchange rates float. Yes (flame suit on) I know less developed countries face exchange rate volatility and have to import food to survive. Which brings me to the point. The first part of scrapping central banks is to eliminate their ideological/political function. They are bastions of conservative mythology – pick whichever one you like – expanding the money supply is inflationary, ‘printing money’ is inflationary, politician meddling in monetary policy is inflationary, financial markets will desert a country that does not have an independent central bank, etc ad nausea. Politicians also use the so-called independence of the central banks as a way of deflecting policy responsibility for mass unemployment. Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) does not advocated doing away with the functions that are legitimately performed within the current central banks. It would stream-line some and make other functions redundant, but what it would do away with is this incessant cycle of ideology that emanates from these institutions.

Read more

Australian labour market – flat and not looking very prospective

Today’s release of the – Labour Force data – for August 2015 by the Australian Bureau of Statistics shows that the Australian labour market stalled this month with fairly weak employment growth, a falling participation rate, and flat hours worked. Unemployment decreased as did the unemployment rate but it that was all due to the decline in the participation rate – that is, unemployment was replaced by hidden unemployment as a result of the weak employment growth. The teenage labour market went backwards in August and their situation remains parlous. In a sense, this is the calm before the storm as private investment is forecast to decline rather sharply in the coming year and the government is intent on cutting its net spending. Either outcome will see the labour market retreat rather quickly.

Read more

Australia’s crawling Internet speed signifies wider fiscal failure

One of the small things I noticed (and enjoyed) in Europe in the last few weeks is the speed of the Internet connections available. Even if one takes the so-called ‘low speed’ option at the hotel (invariably free), the connectivity speeds were far superior to anything I have available in Australia. That matters when large datasets are involved. We often wait minutes for datasets to download here from say the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Watching streaming video is often a case of getting it started, pausing it, and waiting an hour or more for the download to occur so that you can watch it without interruption. Australia is very backward in this regard and the reasons that we are set to become even more disadvantaged are the same reasons that the economy are heading towards recession – a neo-liberal fetish against government spending and an ideological blindness to innovation.

Read more

US labour market – not as strong as in 2014

Last week, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics released the August – Employment Situation – which provides some guide as to the health of the US labour market. The degree to which the guide is very clear is another question altogether. Total non-farm employment rose by only 173,000 and the unemployment rate fell to 5.1 per cent, which on the face of it sounds like a positive development. However, the employment growth was well below the expectation (although the banking economists are rarely close) and deeper analysis shows that the sectors that lead the cycle up and down and therefore provide a signal for the future movement of other sectors, have slowed quite significantly and are growing at 2012 levels when the US was still mired in the GFC downturn. I had a brief look at the gross flows data from the US this morning and the fall in unemployment is being driven by larger outflows from unemployment into employment while flows out of employment into unemployment are much smaller. There are other uncertainties relating to hours of work are growing faster than employment in persons, indicating that firms are now bringing their hoarded labour back into more intensive use. In this blog, I report on what is happening with the hiring and firing rates in the US to broaden our understanding of how things stand at present. The conclusion certainly doesn’t add any weight to the claim that the US Federal Reserve Bank should raise interest rates.

Read more

Monday travel and some austerity stories

There is no detailed blog today as I am travelling from Brussels to Sydney. I will resurface again on Tuesday after the long flight. When I wrote my blog on Friday documenting the austerity tour around Porto I forgot to mention a few things. This blog adds some more observations I have made of conditions in this part of the world at present.

Read more

Saturday Quiz – September 5, 2015 – answers and discussion

Here are the answers with discussion for yesterday’s quiz. The information provided should help you understand the reasoning behind the answers. If you haven’t already done the Quiz from yesterday then have a go at it before you read the answers. I hope this helps you develop an understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its application to macroeconomic thinking. Comments as usual welcome, especially if I have made an error.

Read more
Back To Top