As a researcher one learns to be circumspect in what one says until the results are firm and have been subjected to some serious stress testing (whatever shape that takes). This is especially the case in econometric analysis where the results can be sensitive to the variables used (data etc), the form of the estimating equation(s) deployed (called the functional form), the estimation technique used and more. If one sees the results varying significantly when variations in the research design then it is best to conduct further analysis before making any definitive statements. The IMF clearly don’t follow this rule of good professional practice. They inflict their will on nations – via bullying and cash blackmail – waving long-winded “Outlooks” or “Memorandums” with all sorts of modelling and graphs to give their ideological demands a sense of (unchallengeable) authority before they are even sure of the validity of the underlying results they use to justify their conclusions. And when they are wrong – which in this case means that millions more might be unemployed or impoverished – or more children might have died – they produce further analysis to say they were wrong but we just need to do more work. So who is going to answer for their culpability?