Fiscal policy rules
The World’s financial system would have collapsed in 2008 and early 2009 if the governments of the day (including their central banks) had have maintained the dominant belief held by most mainstream economists that fiscal policy is not capable of an effective stimulus to real economic activity and that building central bank reserves to historically massive levels would cause accelerating inflation. Within a short time, all that orthodox posturing that had been shared by politicians, their advisors, and the mainstream financial and economics media was abandoned and pragmatism reigned supreme. Well sort of! The system was saved because governments largely ignored the dominant mainstream economics view. At the time, I thought that this shift in policy practice was the beginning of a paradigm shift in macroeconomics. The crisis clearly demonstrated the poverty of the orthodox theoretical framework and the policy prescriptions that flowed from it. The dominant theoretical models didn’t even have banking sectors included such was the arrogant ignorance of the profession. However, I was wrong or perhaps a bit hasty in thinking that the defences built up by the orthodox economics Groupthink would fall so quickly in the face of this amazing failure. There was a period of quietness within the profession, save for the manic interventions of some of the more extreme Monetarist elements who called on the governments to do nothing other than continue deregulation and target even bigger fiscal surpluses. But the conservative voices progressively gathered volume as the crisis moved from the probability of collapse to a deep (balance-sheet) recession and the attacks on the fiscal and monetary policy shift that occurred in 2008 and 2009 began to reach fever pitch. Governments retreated somewhat and the recoveries were then stalled and we are where we are now as a consequence – still bearing the residual damage of the GFC with many of the trigger points still unresolved and facing a new calamity. Maybe the paradigm shift is still coming. Let’s hope so.