Australia – investment spending contracts sharply, recession looming

The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) published the September-quarter – Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure, Australia – data today as part of the sequence of data releases relating to next Wednesday’s release of the third quarter National Accounts. Today’s release is especially important given the earlier signs that expected investment would plummet in 2016 and drive economic growth towards recession. Today’s release confirms the worst with Total new capital expenditure falling by 20 per cent in the 12 months to September 2015, investment in Building and structures falling by 23.6 per cent over the same period, and investment in Equipment, plant and machinery falling by 12.7 per cent. In the September-quarter alone, Total new capital expenditure fell by 9.2 per cent. Expected investment for 2015-16 is now 20.9 per cent lower than the equivalent figure 12 months. This is a disaster for the Australian government’s fiscal strategy outlined earlier in May, which was planning to accelerate the austerity. The fiscal stands is currently based on deeply flawed forecasts of private spending and if the investment plans signalled in this data release are realised then the economy will continue to move towards recession over the next 12 months. In light of the latest investment expectations revealed in today’s ABS data release, the Government should abandon their fiscal strategy immediately and announce a significant stimulus package. Unemployment is already at elevated levels and will rise further under the current trends. This is another case of neo-liberal austerity white-anting the capacity of the economy to deliver prosperity for all.

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