An external surplus is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a nation that wishes to grow during a period of fiscal surpluses and private domestic deleveraging.
Answer: True
The answer is True.
This is a question about the relative magnitude of the sectoral balances - the government fiscal balance, the external balance and the private domestic balance. The balances taken together always add to zero because they are derived as an accounting identity from the national accounts. The balances reflect the underlying economic behaviour in each sector which is interdependent - given this is a macroeconomic system we are considering.
To refresh your memory the balances are derived as follows. The basic income-expenditure model in macroeconomics can be viewed in (at least) two ways: (a) from the perspective of the sources of spending; and (b) from the perspective of the uses of the income produced. Bringing these two perspectives (of the same thing) together generates the sectoral balances.
From the sources perspective we write:
(1) GDP = C + I + G + (X - M)
which says that total national income (GDP) is the sum of total final consumption spending (C), total private investment (I), total government spending (G) and net exports (X - M).
Expression (1) tells us that total income in the economy per period will be exactly equal to total spending from all sources of expenditure.
We also have to acknowledge that financial balances of the sectors are impacted by net government taxes (T) which includes all tax revenue minus total transfer and interest payments (the latter are not counted independently in the expenditure Expression (1)).
Further, as noted above the trade account is only one aspect of the financial flows between the domestic economy and the external sector. we have to include net external income flows (FNI).
Adding in the net external income flows (FNI) to Expression (2) for GDP we get the familiar gross national product or gross national income measure (GNP):
(2) GNP = C + I + G + (X - M) + FNI
To render this approach into the sectoral balances form, we subtract total net taxes (T) from both sides of Expression (3) to get:
(3) GNP - T = C + I + G + (X - M) + FNI - T
Now we can collect the terms by arranging them according to the three sectoral balances:
(4) (GNP - C - T) - I = (G - T) + (X - M + FNI)
The the terms in Expression (4) are relatively easy to understand now.
The term (GNP - C - T) represents total income less the amount consumed less the amount paid to government in taxes (taking into account transfers coming the other way). In other words, it represents private domestic saving.
The left-hand side of Equation (4), (GNP - C - T) - I, thus is the overall saving of the private domestic sector, which is distinct from total household saving denoted by the term (GNP - C - T).
In other words, the left-hand side of Equation (4) is the private domestic financial balance and if it is positive then the sector is spending less than its total income and if it is negative the sector is spending more than it total income.
The term (G - T) is the government financial balance and is in deficit if government spending (G) is greater than government tax revenue minus transfers (T), and in surplus if the balance is negative.
Finally, the other right-hand side term (X - M + FNI) is the external financial balance, commonly known as the current account balance (CAD). It is in surplus if positive and deficit if negative.
In English we could say that:
The private financial balance equals the sum of the government financial balance plus the current account balance.
We can re-write Expression (6) in this way to get the sectoral balances equation:
(5) (S - I) = (G - T) + CAD
which is interpreted as meaning that government sector deficits (G - T > 0) and current account surpluses (CAD > 0) generate national income and net financial assets for the private domestic sector.
Conversely, government surpluses (G - T < 0) and current account deficits (CAD < 0) reduce national income and undermine the capacity of the private domestic sector to add financial assets.
Expression (5) can also be written as:
(6) [(S - I) - CAD] = (G - T)
where the term on the left-hand side [(S - I) - CAD] is the non-government sector financial balance and is of equal and opposite sign to the government financial balance.
This is the familiar MMT statement that a government sector deficit (surplus) is equal dollar-for-dollar to the non-government sector surplus (deficit).
The sectoral balances equation says that total private savings (S) minus private investment (I) has to equal the public deficit (spending, G minus taxes, T) plus net exports (exports (X) minus imports (M)) plus net income transfers.
All these relationships (equations) hold as a matter of accounting and are not matters of opinion.
The following graph with accompanying data table lets you see the evolution of the balances expressed in terms of percent of GDP. In each period I just held the fiscal balance at a constant surplus (2 per cent of GDP) (green bars). This is is artificial because as economic activity changes the automatic stabilisers would lead to endogenous changes in the fiscal balance. But we will just assume there is no change for simplicity. It doesn't violate the logic.
To aid interpretation remember that (I-S) > 0 means that the private domestic sector is spending more than they are earning; that (G-T) < 0 means that the government is running a surplus because T > G; and (X-M) < 0 means the external position is in deficit because imports are greater than exports.
If the nation is running an external surplus it means that the contribution to aggregate demand from the external sector is positive - that is net addition to spending which would increase output and national income.
The external surplus also means that foreigners are decreasing financial claims denominated in the local currency. Given that exports represent a real cost and imports a real benefit, the motivation for a nation running a net exports surplus (the exporting nation in this case) must be to accumulate financial claims (assets) denominated in the currency of the nation running the external deficit.
A fiscal surplus means the government is spending less than it is taking out of the economy via taxations which puts a drag on aggregate demand and constrains the ability of the economy to grow. So the question is what are the relative magnitudes of the external add and the net public spending subtract from income?
The following graph shows the range of options for a given external surplus (of 2 per cent of GDP).
In Periods 1 to 5, the private domestic sector is saving because the public sector does not negate the overall contribution of the external sector to demand and hence growth. Clearly, the larger is the fiscal deficit the greater is the capacity of the private domestic sector to save overall because the growth in income would be stronger.
In Periods 4 and 5, the fiscal balance moves from deficit to balance then surplus, yet the private domestic sector can still net save. That is because the fiscal drag coming from the fiscal balance in Period 4 is zero and in Period 5 less than the aggregate demand add derived from the external sector.
In Periods 6 and 7, the private domestic sector stops net saving because the fiscal drag coming from the fiscal surplus offsets (Period 6) and then overwhelms (Period 7) the aggregate demand add from the external sector.
The general rule when the economy runs an external surplus is that the private domestic sector will be able to net save if the fiscal surplus is less than the external surplus.
That is why the external surplus is necessary but not sufficient. It relies on the fiscal surplus being large enough for the private domestic sector to be able to net save.
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