Bill Mitchell's Alternative Olympic Games Medal Tally - 2012 |
Latest News: August 17, 2012 - Final Medal TallyThe Tables in the Tabs are now complete as at August 17, 2012 for the Final Medal Tally. I have adjusted the tables to reflect the decision to award the New Zealand field athlete the Gold Medal and disqualify the drug cheat from Belarus in the Shot Put event. This also involved awarding a silver medal to Russia and the bronze to China. We will resume in 2016. IntroductionThe following analysis is derived from the Olympic Games Medal Tally and aims to present a different view of the Games. The absolute (official) medal count allows large nations to hear their national anthem a lot but hides facts like how large their economy is (the largest having more resources to devote to sport and nutrition etc), how large their population is (more people to win medals), and how much income per person the nation has (arguably the best measure of the capacity of the nation to mount a sport's campaign in pursuit of medals). The following alternative medal counts modify the official tally to take into account size of economy, size of population and the income per head that each medal-winning nation enjoys. The comparisons cannot be used to extrapolate anything. There are clearly not enough medals available at the Olympic Games for a largely populated country like China or the US or India, to name a few of several to win their "fair share". But then we also would expect the large countries to exhibit scale economies that smaller countries cannot. Whatever, the tables are not statistical or probabilistic in nature and carry no predictive value. They are just for some fun and should not be taken seriously. The following Tables are available which modify the raw tally:
This table shows the Gross Domestic Product for the medal winning countries expressed in billions of 2011 International dollars for comparative purposes. The next columns are the actual Gold, Silver, Bronze and Total medals won by the respective nations. The Weighted Medal Total is formulated by treating a Gold medal as a complete medal, Silver as 0.666 of a medal, and Bronze as 0.3333 of a medal. So the formula for column (9) = (5) + 0.66(6) + 0.33(7). Column (10) is gained by dividing (4) by (9). The division is done in this way to avoid very small numbers should we have presented Medals per $GDP. But it is a measure of how efficient the medal performance is for the scale of the economy. Column (10) can be expressed in words as the amount in millions of GDP (USD) per weighted medal. So the smaller this number the 'better' is the performance given the capacity of the economy (as measured by GDP).
The data is ranked according to Column (10). The LOWEST number is best. Last computed: August 17, 2012 - Final Medal Tally
1 50 Grenada 1 1 0 0 1 1.0 1.4 2 18 Jamaica 25 4 4 4 12 8.0 3.1 3 56 Mongolia 13 0 2 3 5 2.3 5.7 4 39 Georgia 25 1 3 3 7 4.0 6.2 5 20 North Korea 40 4 0 2 6 4.7 8.6 6 52 Bahamas 11 1 0 0 1 1.0 10.8 7 74 Montenegro 7 0 1 0 1 0.7 10.8 8 28 Kenya 71 2 4 5 11 6.3 11.4 9 16 Cuba 114 5 3 6 14 9.0 12.7 10 47 Trinidad and Tobago 27 1 0 3 4 2.0 13.3 11 61 Armenia 18 0 1 2 3 1.3 13.6 12 15 New Zealand 122 6 2 5 13 9.0 13.6 13 9 Hungary 196 8 4 5 17 12.3 15.9 14 30 Azerbaijan 93 2 2 6 10 5.3 17.6 15 77 Moldova 12 0 0 2 2 0.7 18.2 16 34 Lithuania 62 2 1 2 5 3.3 18.6 17 25 Croatia 80 3 1 2 6 4.3 18.6 18 26 Belarus 142 2 5 5 12 7.0 20.4 19 24 Ethiopia 95 3 1 3 7 4.7 20.4 20 12 Kazakhstan 217 7 1 5 13 9.3 23.3 21 42 Slovenia 58 1 1 2 4 2.3 25.0 22 49 Latvia 35 1 0 1 2 1.3 26.3 23 14 Ukraine 329 6 5 9 20 12.3 26.9 24 65 Estonia 27 0 1 1 2 1.0 27.6 25 44 Serbia 79 1 1 2 4 2.3 34.0 26 70 Cyprus 24 0 1 0 1 0.7 36.0 27 29 Denmark 207 2 4 3 9 5.6 36.7 28 72 Gabon 25 0 1 0 1 0.7 37.2 29 19 Czech Republic 285 4 3 3 10 7.0 40.9 30 10 Australia 914 7 16 12 35 21.5 42.5 31 27 Romania 267 2 5 2 9 6.0 44.8 32 73 Botswana 30 0 1 0 1 0.7 45.0 33 4 Russia 2383 24 26 32 82 51.7 46.1 34 54 Uganda 46 1 0 0 1 1.0 46.4 35 48 Uzbekistan 95 1 0 3 4 2.0 47.9 36 3 United Kingdom 2261 29 17 19 65 46.5 48.6 37 79 Tajikistan 16 0 0 1 1 0.3 49.2 38 45 Tunisia 101 1 1 1 3 2.0 50.7 39 13 Netherlands 704 6 6 8 20 12.6 55.9 40 46 Dominican Republic 93 1 1 0 2 1.7 56.3 41 84 Macedonia 21 0 0 1 1 0.3 64.7 42 41 Ireland 182 1 1 3 5 2.7 68.5 43 5 South Korea 1554 13 8 7 28 20.6 75.5 44 59 Slovakia 127 0 1 3 4 1.7 76.9 45 37 Sweden 382 1 4 3 8 4.6 82.4 46 35 Norway 266 2 1 1 4 3.0 88.9 47 85 Afghanistan 30 0 0 1 1 0.3 90.1 48 86 Bahrain 31 0 0 1 1 0.3 94.2 49 7 France 2218 11 11 12 34 22.2 99.8 50 63 Bulgaria 101 0 1 1 2 1.0 102.1 51 33 Switzerland 340 2 2 0 4 3.3 102.4 52 8 Italy 1847 8 9 11 28 17.6 105.1 53 66 Puerto Rico 108 0 1 1 2 1.0 109.5 54 38 Colombia 472 1 3 4 8 4.3 109.8 55 6 Germany 3099 11 19 14 44 28.2 110.1 56 71 Guatemala 75 0 1 0 1 0.7 113.2 57 23 South Africa 555 3 2 1 6 4.7 119.4 58 17 Iran 990 4 5 3 12 8.3 119.4 59 21 Spain 1413 3 10 4 17 10.9 129.4 60 31 Poland 772 2 2 6 10 5.3 145.6 61 60 Finland 196 0 1 2 3 1.3 148.3 62 36 Canada 1396 1 5 12 18 8.3 169.0 63 2 China 11300 38 27 23 88 63.4 178.2 64 1 United States 15094 46 29 29 104 74.7 202.0 65 11 Japan 4440 7 14 17 38 21.9 203.2 66 22 Brazil 2294 3 5 9 17 9.3 247.5 67 51 Algeria 264 1 0 0 1 1.0 263.7 68 76 Qatar 182 0 0 2 2 0.7 275.8 69 32 Turkey 1074 2 2 1 5 3.7 294.1 70 43 Argentina 716 1 1 2 4 2.3 308.8 71 62 Belgium 413 0 1 2 3 1.3 313.1 72 57 Thailand 602 0 2 1 3 1.7 364.9 73 53 Venezuela 374 1 0 0 1 1.0 374.1 74 69 Portugal 249 0 1 0 1 0.7 377.2 75 58 Egypt 519 0 2 0 2 1.3 393.2 76 40 Mexico 1662 1 3 3 7 4.0 418.5 77 75 Greece 294 0 0 2 2 0.7 446.0 78 67 Malaysia 447 0 1 1 2 1.0 451.8 79 81 Kuwait 154 0 0 1 1 0.3 465.2 80 78 Singapore 315 0 0 2 2 0.7 477.1 81 82 Morocco 163 0 0 1 1 0.3 492.8 82 64 Taiwan 876 0 1 1 2 1.0 884.9 83 83 Hong Kong 351 0 0 1 1 0.3 1064.0 84 68 Indonesia 1125 0 1 1 2 1.0 1136.0 85 55 India 4458 0 2 4 6 2.6 1688.6 86 80 Saudi Arabia 683 0 0 1 1 0.3 2068.9 This measure shows the medals by million people and also a weighted medal tally per million people. The rankings are sorted on this latter measure. It takes the official medal tally and expresses the Gold, Silver and Bronze in per capita terms. In this case, I have chosen to use Medals per Million People as the per capita measure even if some countries have less than a million citizens. The measure just means that they would achieve this is scaled up proportionately. The weighted per capita total differs from the actual per capita total in that I have weighted a Gold medal as a complete medal, Silver as 0.666 of a medal, and Bronze as 0.3333 of a medal. Various weightings could be applied but I chose this presumably defensible weighting. After all: "you don't win a silver, you lose gold!". The Gold column is the actual Gold medals per million people in that country, the Silver column is the actual Silver medals per million people in that country, and the Bronze is the actual Bronze medals per million people in that country. The Unweighted total is the Total medals without the weighting applied. The final column is the Total medals per capita weighted as described above.
The nations are ranked according to column (10). The HIGHEST number is best. Last computed: August 17, 2012 - Final Medal Tally
1 50 Grenada 0.1 1 0 0 1 1.0 9.5338 2 18 Jamaica 2.7 4 4 4 12 8.0 2.9518 3 52 Bahamas 0.3 1 0 0 1 1.0 2.8804 4 15 New Zealand 4.4 6 2 5 13 9.0 2.0427 5 47 Trinidad and Tobago 1.3 1 0 3 4 2.0 1.4854 6 9 Hungary 10.0 8 4 5 17 12.3 1.2366 7 42 Slovenia 2.1 1 1 2 4 2.3 1.1367 8 74 Montenegro 0.6 0 1 0 1 0.7 1.0534 9 34 Lithuania 3.2 2 1 2 5 3.3 1.0405 10 29 Denmark 5.6 2 4 3 9 5.7 1.0161 11 25 Croatia 4.4 3 1 2 6 4.3 0.9831 12 10 Australia 22.6 7 16 12 35 21.7 0.9573 13 39 Georgia 4.5 1 3 3 7 4.0 0.8912 14 56 Mongolia 2.8 0 2 3 5 2.3 0.8328 15 16 Cuba 11.3 5 3 6 14 9.0 0.7995 16 13 Netherlands 16.7 6 6 8 20 12.7 0.7584 17 65 Estonia 1.3 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.7457 18 3 United Kingdom 62.6 29 17 19 65 46.7 0.7448 19 26 Belarus 9.5 2 5 5 12 7.0 0.7386 20 19 Czech Republic 10.5 4 3 3 10 7.0 0.6636 21 35 Norway 5.0 2 1 1 4 3.0 0.6057 22 49 Latvia 2.2 1 0 1 2 1.3 0.6006 23 70 Cyprus 1.1 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.5965 24 41 Ireland 4.5 1 1 3 5 2.7 0.5941 25 30 Azerbaijan 9.2 2 2 6 10 5.3 0.5816 26 12 Kazakhstan 16.6 7 1 5 13 9.3 0.5636 27 37 Sweden 9.5 1 4 3 8 4.7 0.4934 28 72 Gabon 1.5 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.4341 29 61 Armenia 3.1 0 1 2 3 1.3 0.4298 30 33 Switzerland 7.9 2 2 0 4 3.3 0.4214 31 5 South Korea 49.8 13 8 7 28 20.7 0.4151 32 4 Russia 141.9 24 26 32 82 52.0 0.3662 33 76 Qatar 1.9 0 0 2 2 0.7 0.3565 34 6 Germany 81.7 11 19 14 44 28.3 0.3465 35 7 France 65.4 11 11 12 34 22.3 0.3412 36 73 Botswana 2.0 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.3280 37 44 Serbia 7.3 1 1 2 4 2.3 0.3213 38 59 Slovakia 5.4 0 1 3 4 1.7 0.3062 39 8 Italy 60.8 8 9 11 28 17.7 0.2906 40 27 Romania 21.4 2 5 2 9 6.0 0.2803 41 14 Ukraine 45.7 6 5 9 20 12.3 0.2698 42 66 Puerto Rico 3.7 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.2696 43 86 Bahrain 1.3 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.2518 44 60 Finland 5.4 0 1 2 3 1.3 0.2474 45 36 Canada 34.5 1 5 12 18 8.3 0.2416 46 1 United States 311.6 46 29 29 104 75.0 0.2406 47 21 Spain 46.2 3 10 4 17 11.0 0.2378 48 20 North Korea 24.5 4 0 2 6 4.7 0.1909 49 45 Tunisia 10.7 1 1 1 3 2.0 0.1873 50 77 Moldova 3.6 0 0 2 2 0.7 0.1873 51 11 Japan 127.8 7 14 17 38 22.0 0.1720 52 46 Dominican Republic 10.1 1 1 0 2 1.7 0.1657 53 84 Macedonia 2.1 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.1615 54 28 Kenya 41.6 2 4 5 11 6.3 0.1521 55 31 Poland 38.2 2 2 6 10 5.3 0.1395 56 63 Bulgaria 7.5 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.1337 57 78 Singapore 5.2 0 0 2 2 0.7 0.1286 58 62 Belgium 11.0 0 1 2 3 1.3 0.1211 59 81 Kuwait 2.8 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.1183 60 17 Iran 74.8 4 5 3 12 8.3 0.1114 61 38 Colombia 46.9 1 3 4 8 4.3 0.0923 62 23 South Africa 50.6 3 2 1 6 4.7 0.0922 63 48 Uzbekistan 29.3 1 0 3 4 2.0 0.0682 64 69 Portugal 10.6 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.0626 65 75 Greece 11.3 0 0 2 2 0.7 0.0590 66 43 Argentina 40.8 1 1 2 4 2.3 0.0572 67 24 Ethiopia 84.7 3 1 3 7 4.7 0.0551 68 32 Turkey 73.6 2 2 1 5 3.7 0.0498 69 79 Tajikistan 7.0 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0478 70 22 Brazil 196.7 3 5 9 17 9.3 0.0474 71 2 China 1344.1 38 27 23 88 63.6 0.0474 72 83 Hong Kong 7.1 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0471 73 71 Guatemala 14.8 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.0451 74 64 Taiwan 23.2 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.0431 75 40 Mexico 114.8 1 3 3 7 4.0 0.0348 76 67 Malaysia 28.9 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.0346 77 53 Venezuela 29.3 1 0 0 1 1.0 0.0342 78 54 Uganda 34.5 1 0 0 1 1.0 0.0290 79 51 Algeria 36.0 1 0 0 1 1.0 0.0278 80 57 Thailand 69.5 0 2 1 3 1.7 0.0240 81 58 Egypt 82.5 0 2 0 2 1.3 0.0161 82 80 Saudi Arabia 28.1 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0119 83 82 Morocco 32.3 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0103 84 85 Afghanistan 35.3 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0094 85 68 Indonesia 242.3 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.0041 86 55 India 1241.5 0 2 4 6 2.7 0.0021 This table shows the weighted medal count in terms of GDP per persons. So it scales the size of the economy by the size of the population. The Weighted Medal Total is formulated by treating a Gold medal as a complete medal, Silver as 0.666 of a medal, and Bronze as 0.3333 of a medal. So the formula for column (9) = (5) + 0.66(6) + 0.33(7). Column (10) is gained by dividing (9) by (4) then multiplying by 1000 (to get some numbers before the decimal point). Column (10) can be expressed in words as the number of weighted medals a country would have if every person had $US1000 per year. So the larger this number the 'better' is the performance given the wealth of the economy scaled by its population
The data is ranked according to Column (10). The HIGHEST number is best. Australia slips relative to the Per Capita Rankings because while it is small in population terms, it is relatively rich. China, by comparison which is large in population is poor in terms of GDP per capita. Last computed: August 17, 2012 - Final Medal Tally
1 2 China 8382 38 27 23 88 63.4 7.5650 2 24 Ethiopia 1093 3 1 3 7 4.7 4.2558 3 28 Kenya 1746 2 4 5 11 6.3 3.6026 4 4 Russia 16736 24 26 32 82 51.7 3.0903 5 20 North Korea 1800 4 0 2 6 4.7 2.5889 6 14 Ukraine 7233 6 5 9 20 12.3 1.6964 7 1 United States 48387 46 29 29 104 74.7 1.5440 8 3 United Kingdom 36090 29 17 19 65 46.5 1.2882 9 16 Cuba 9900 5 3 6 14 9.0 0.9051 10 18 Jamaica 9029 4 4 4 12 8.0 0.8816 11 22 Brazil 11769 3 5 9 17 9.3 0.7876 12 54 Uganda 1317 1 0 0 1 1.0 0.7592 13 6 Germany 37897 11 19 14 44 28.2 0.7431 14 39 Georgia 5491 1 3 3 7 4.0 0.7230 15 12 Kazakhstan 13001 7 1 5 13 9.3 0.7161 16 55 India 3694 0 2 4 6 2.6 0.7148 17 5 South Korea 31714 13 8 7 28 20.6 0.6492 18 17 Iran 13053 4 5 3 12 8.3 0.6351 19 7 France 35156 11 11 12 34 22.2 0.6320 20 11 Japan 34740 7 14 17 38 21.9 0.6290 21 9 Hungary 19591 8 4 5 17 12.3 0.6273 22 48 Uzbekistan 3302 1 0 3 4 2.0 0.6026 23 8 Italy 30464 8 9 11 28 17.6 0.5767 24 10 Australia 40234 7 16 12 35 21.5 0.5349 25 30 Azerbaijan 10202 2 2 6 10 5.3 0.5195 26 56 Mongolia 4744 0 2 3 5 2.3 0.4870 27 27 Romania 12476 2 5 2 9 6.0 0.4777 28 26 Belarus 15028 2 5 5 12 7.0 0.4625 29 23 South Africa 10973 3 2 1 6 4.7 0.4238 30 38 Colombia 10249 1 3 4 8 4.3 0.4196 31 21 Spain 30626 3 10 4 17 10.9 0.3566 32 85 Afghanistan 956 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.3450 33 15 New Zealand 27668 6 2 5 13 9.0 0.3242 34 13 Netherlands 42183 6 6 8 20 12.6 0.2987 35 40 Mexico 14610 1 3 3 7 4.0 0.2717 36 31 Poland 20334 2 2 6 10 5.3 0.2606 37 19 Czech Republic 27062 4 3 3 10 7.0 0.2576 38 32 Turkey 14517 2 2 1 5 3.7 0.2514 39 61 Armenia 5384 0 1 2 3 1.3 0.2452 40 25 Croatia 18192 3 1 2 6 4.3 0.2375 41 44 Serbia 10642 1 1 2 4 2.3 0.2180 42 68 Indonesia 4666 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.2122 43 45 Tunisia 9478 1 1 1 3 2.0 0.2100 44 36 Canada 40541 1 5 12 18 8.3 0.2037 45 58 Egypt 6540 0 2 0 2 1.3 0.2018 46 77 Moldova 3373 0 0 2 2 0.7 0.1957 47 46 Dominican Republic 9287 1 1 0 2 1.7 0.1787 48 34 Lithuania 18856 2 1 2 5 3.3 0.1761 49 57 Thailand 9396 0 2 1 3 1.7 0.1756 50 79 Tajikistan 2067 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.1597 51 29 Denmark 37152 2 4 3 9 5.6 0.1515 52 51 Algeria 7333 1 0 0 1 1.0 0.1364 53 43 Argentina 17516 1 1 2 4 2.3 0.1324 54 71 Guatemala 5070 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.1302 55 37 Sweden 40394 1 4 3 8 4.6 0.1146 56 47 Trinidad and Tobago 20053 1 0 3 4 2.0 0.0992 57 49 Latvia 15662 1 0 1 2 1.3 0.0849 58 42 Slovenia 28642 1 1 2 4 2.3 0.0810 59 53 Venezuela 12568 1 0 0 1 1.0 0.0796 60 33 Switzerland 43370 2 2 0 4 3.3 0.0766 61 63 Bulgaria 13597 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.0728 62 50 Grenada 13896 1 0 0 1 1.0 0.0720 63 59 Slovakia 23304 0 1 3 4 1.7 0.0708 64 41 Ireland 39639 1 1 3 5 2.7 0.0669 65 82 Morocco 5052 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0653 66 67 Malaysia 15568 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.0636 67 74 Montenegro 11545 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.0572 68 35 Norway 53471 2 1 1 4 3.0 0.0559 69 65 Estonia 20380 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.0486 70 73 Botswana 16030 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.0412 71 72 Gabon 16183 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.0408 72 60 Finland 36236 0 1 2 3 1.3 0.0364 73 66 Puerto Rico 27384 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.0362 74 62 Belgium 37737 0 1 2 3 1.3 0.0350 75 52 Bahamas 30959 1 0 0 1 1.0 0.0323 76 84 Macedonia 10367 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0318 77 69 Portugal 23361 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.0283 78 64 Taiwan 37720 0 1 1 2 1.0 0.0262 79 75 Greece 26294 0 0 2 2 0.7 0.0251 80 70 Cyprus 29074 0 1 0 1 0.7 0.0227 81 80 Saudi Arabia 24237 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0136 82 86 Bahrain 27556 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0120 83 78 Singapore 59711 0 0 2 2 0.7 0.0111 84 81 Kuwait 41691 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0079 85 83 Hong Kong 49137 0 0 1 1 0.3 0.0067 86 76 Qatar 02943 0 0 2 2 0.7 0.0064 Past GDP and Per Capita Rankings
Data Sources:Population Data The population data is sourced from the World Bank Indicators Database.The population counts (in millions) are at 2011. Gross Domestic Product The economic activity measure used for comparative purposes Gross domestic product based on purchasing-power-parity (PPP) valuation of country GDP as published by the International Monetary Fund in their World Economic Outlook (WEO). The latest publication date is April 2012. The data is for 2011 and the specific WEO series used is denoted PPPGDP. The comparative unit is what the IMF refer to as the current international dollar. The IMF say that: "These data form the basis for the country weights used to generate the World Economic Outlook country group composites for the domestic economy. The IMF is not a primary source for purchasing power parity (PPP) data. WEO weights have been created from primary sources and are used solely for purposes of generating country group composites. For primary source information, please refer to one of the following sources: the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, the World Bank, or the Penn World Tables." Gross Domestic Product per Capita The economic activity measure used for comparative purposes is GDP in PPP (Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) dollars per person as published by the IMF World Economic Outlook (last publication is April 2012). The data is for 2011. The IMF note that the data "are derived by dividing GDP in PPP dollars by total population". See additional notes applicable for GDP in PPP. |
Contact address:
Professor Bill Mitchell
Professor of Economics
Director, Centre of Full Employment and Equity
University of Newcastle
Callaghan NSW 2308, Australia
Telephone: +61-2-4921 5027
Fax: +61-2-4921 8731
Mobile Phone: 0419 422 410
E-mail: Bill.Mitchell AT newcastle.edu.au (change AT to @ and eliminate the spaces)