{"id":63236,"date":"2026-06-25T12:37:52","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T02:37:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/?p=63236"},"modified":"2026-06-25T12:37:52","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T02:37:52","slug":"australian-labour-market-slight-improvement-after-dismal-results-in-april","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/?p=63236","title":{"rendered":"Australian labour market &#8211; slight improvement after dismal results in April"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (June 25, 2026) &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/statistics\/labour\/employment-and-unemployment\/labour-force-australia\/may-2026\">Labour Force, Australia<\/a> &#8211; for May 2026  &#8211; which showed that the labour market improved slightly in May after a poor showing in the April figures. However, there are now 10.2 per cent of available labour not being used (either unemployed or underemployment), which makes a farce of the RBA&#8217;s claims that the labour market is tight. There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present.<br \/>\n<!--more--><\/p>\n<p>The summary seasonally-adjusted statistics for May 2026 are:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Employment rose 40,300 (0.3 per cent).<\/li>\n<li>Full-time employment rose 5,200 (0.1 per cent).<\/li>\n<li>Part-time employment rose 35,200 (0.8 per cent).<\/li>\n<li>Unemployment fell 18,300 to 671,300 persons.<\/li>\n<li>The unemployment rate fell 0.1 point to 4.4 per cent.<\/li>\n<li>The participation rate was stable on 66.7 per cent.<\/li>\n<li>The Employment-population ratio rose 0.1 point to 63.8 per cent.<\/li>\n<li>Monthly hours worked fell 22 million (-1.1 per cent).<\/li>\n<li>Underemployment rose 0.1 point 5.9 per cent (rising 13 thousand to 904.2 thousand).<\/li>\n<li>The Broad Labour Underutilisation rate (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) fell 0.1 point to 10.2 per cent.<\/li>\n<li>Overall, there are 1,575.5 thousand people either unemployed or underemployed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The ABS press release &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.abs.gov.au\/media-centre\/media-releases\/unemployment-rate-falls-44-may\">Unemployment rate falls to 4.4% in May<\/a> &#8211; noted that:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\nThe seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 4.4 per cent in May &#8230;<\/p>\n<p>Over the past few months, we have recorded higher proportions of unemployed people waiting to start jobs who then remained unemployed in the following month.<\/p>\n<p>&#8230; The backlog of people waiting to start a job has eased in May, contributing to the 40,000 rise in employment and 18,000 fall in unemployed persons.<\/p>\n<p>Full-time employment grew by 5,000 and part-time employment by 35,000.<\/p>\n<p>The underemployment rate rose 0.1 percentage points to 5.9 per cent in May &#8230; <\/p>\n<p>Hours worked was down 1.1 per cent in May after a 0.9 per cent rise last month.\n<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><strong>Summary<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>1. After a dismal last month, the May data is better &#8211; that is about all we can say.<\/p>\n<p>2. Chronic underutilisation of available labour resources continues.<\/p>\n<h2>Employment growth returns to the positive in May<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Employment rose 40,300 (0.3 per cent).<\/li>\n<li>Full-time employment rose 5,200 (0.1 per cent).<\/li>\n<li>Part-time employment rose 35,200 (0.8 per cent).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The following graph shows the growth in total, full-time, and part-time employment for the last 24 months.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Employment_Growth_24_months_to_May_2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Employment_Growth_24_months_to_May_2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"620\" height=\"1082\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63240\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Employment_Growth_24_months_to_May_2026.png 620w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Employment_Growth_24_months_to_May_2026-172x300.png 172w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Employment_Growth_24_months_to_May_2026-587x1024.png 587w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 620px) 100vw, 620px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<p>The following table shows the shifts over the last 6 months which helps to see the underlying trend.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Last_6_months_Table_May_2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Last_6_months_Table_May_2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"630\" height=\"363\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63239\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Last_6_months_Table_May_2026.png 630w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Last_6_months_Table_May_2026-300x173.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 630px) 100vw, 630px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<p>The Employment-to-Population ratio provides a measure of the state of the labour market that is independent of the supply shifts in the labour market (driven by the shifts in the participation rate).<\/p>\n<p>The underlying working age population grows steadily while the labour force shifts with both underlying population growth and the participation swings.<\/p>\n<p>The following graph shows the Employment-Population ratio rose 0.1 point to 63.8 per cent in May.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_EPOP_Feb_2008_May_2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_EPOP_Feb_2008_May_2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"360\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63243\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_EPOP_Feb_2008_May_2026.png 600w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_EPOP_Feb_2008_May_2026-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<p>The next graphs show the average monthly change in total employment (first graph) and full- and part-time employment (second graph).<br \/>\n<a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_ave_monthly_change_total_1980_May_2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_ave_monthly_change_total_1980_May_2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"361\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63242\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_ave_monthly_change_total_1980_May_2026.png 600w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_ave_monthly_change_total_1980_May_2026-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_ave_monthly_change_FT_PT_1980_May_202.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_ave_monthly_change_FT_PT_1980_May_202.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"360\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63241\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_ave_monthly_change_FT_PT_1980_May_202.png 600w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_ave_monthly_change_FT_PT_1980_May_202-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<p>For total employment the monthly average changes were:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2022 &#8211; 46 thousand<\/li>\n<li>2023 &#8211; 30.7 thousand<\/li>\n<li>2024 &#8211; 30.3 thousand<\/li>\n<li>2025 &#8211; 12.6 thousand<\/li>\n<li>2026 to date &#8211; 15.3 thousand<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Monthly hours worked fell 21.5 million (1.06 per cent) in May 2026<\/h2>\n<p>The following graph shows the growth in monthly hours worked for the last 24 months, with the straight line being a simple linear regression to indicate trend.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_monthly_growth_hours_worked_and_trend_May_2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_monthly_growth_hours_worked_and_trend_May_2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"361\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63238\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_monthly_growth_hours_worked_and_trend_May_2026.png 600w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_monthly_growth_hours_worked_and_trend_May_2026-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<h2>Unemployment fell 18,300 to 671,300 persons in May<\/h2>\n<p>The unemployment rate fell 0.1 point to 4.4 per cent.<\/p>\n<p>The growth in employment slightly outstripped the growth in the labour force.<\/p>\n<p>The following graph shows the evolution of the official unemployment rate since 1980.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_UR_1980_May_2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_UR_1980_May_2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"360\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63244\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_UR_1980_May_2026.png 600w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_UR_1980_May_2026-300x180.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<h2>Broad labour underutilisation &#8211; fell 0.1 point in May 2026<\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Underemployment rose 0.1 point 5.9 per cent (rising 13 thousand to 904.2 thousand).<\/li>\n<li>The Broad Labour Underutilisation rate (the sum of unemployment and underemployment) fell 0.1 point to 10.2 per cent.<\/li>\n<li>Overall, there are 1,575.5 thousand people either unemployed or underemployed.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The following graph shows the evolution of underemployment and the Broad labour underutilisation rate since 1980.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Underemployment_Broad_1980_May_2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Underemployment_Broad_1980_May_2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"362\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63237\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Underemployment_Broad_1980_May_2026.png 600w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Underemployment_Broad_1980_May_2026-300x181.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<h2>Teenage labour market &#8211; improved<\/h2>\n<p>This month, both full-time and part-time employment rose reversing the trend in recent months.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Full-time employment 9.7 thousand (+5.3 per cent).<\/li>\n<li>Part-time employment rose 9.5 thousand ()+1.4 per cent).<\/li>\n<li>Total teenage (15-19) employment fell 19.2 thousand (+2.3 per cent).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The following table summarises the shifts in the teenage labour market for the month and over the last 12 months.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Teenage_Summary_Table_May_2026.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Teenage_Summary_Table_May_2026.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"740\" height=\"361\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-63245\" srcset=\"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Teenage_Summary_Table_May_2026.png 740w, https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/06\/Australia_Teenage_Summary_Table_May_2026-300x146.png 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 740px) 100vw, 740px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<div style=\"clear:both;\"><\/div>\n<p>To put these changes into a scale perspective (that is, relative to size of the teenage labour force) the following data reports the shifts in the Employment-Population ratio for teenagers.<\/p>\n<p>The Teenage Employment-Population ratios and their monthly changes in May 2026 were:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Males: 47.6 per cent &#8211; up 0.8 points.<\/li>\n<li>Females: 51.7 per cent &#8211; up 1.36 points.<\/li>\n<li>Total: 49.6 per cent &#8211; upn 1.1 points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<h2>Conclusion<\/h2>\n<p>My standard warning to take care in interpreting monthly labour force changes &#8211; they can fluctuate for a number of reasons and it is imprudent to jump to conclusions on the back of a single month&#8217;s data.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>The labour market improved in May.<\/li>\n<li>The improvement was modest but welcome after the poor showing in recent months.<\/li>\n<li>There are now 10.2 per cent of available labour not being used (either unemployed or underemployment), which makes a farce of the RBA&#8217;s claims that the labour market is tight.<\/li>\n<li>There is substantial scope for more job creation given the slack that is present. However, if the global situation doesn&#8217;t improve quickly then that slack will increase sharply.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>That is enough for today!<\/p>\n<p>(c) Copyright 2026 William Mitchell. All Rights Reserved.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) released the latest labour force data today (June 25, 2026) &#8211; Labour Force, Australia &#8211; for May 2026 &#8211; which showed that the labour market improved slightly in May after a poor showing in the April figures. However, there are now 10.2 per cent of available labour not being&hellip;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[34],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-63236","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-labour-force","entry","no-media"],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63236","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=63236"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/63236\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=63236"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=63236"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/billmitchell.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=63236"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}