Launching the CofFEE Financial Resilience Barometer – Version 1.0

It’s Wednesday and while there is a lot to write about, I am prioritising the release today of our latest research at the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE). The release of what we are calling the – CofFEE Financial Resilience Barometer – Version 1.0 – is part of a research collaboration I have with Professor Scott Baum at Griffith University. We have Australian Research Council funding for the next three years to explore regional resilience in the face of economic shocks, particularly after the massive disruptions from the Covid pandemic. Today we release the first output of that research. I also consider other matters today and the usual Wednesday music segment comes with a song from a leading Palestinian singer.

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The CofFEE Employment Vulnerability Index V2.0

Today our research centre – Centre of Full Employment and Equity – which is known as CofFEE, released the second version of our – Employment Vulnerability Index – which is an indicator that identifies the localities (medium-sized areas) in Australia that are most vulnerable to job losses when economic activity declines. The Australian labour market has not recovered the ground it lost in the downturn associated with the Global Financial Crisis. After showing signs of recovery as a result of the fiscal stimulus in 2009-10, the fiscal austerity that the Federal government imposed as it obsessively pursued a budget surplus has caused us to lose all the gains that were made. The Government failed in its quest because it overestimated the strength of private spending (which is still very flat) and its deficit was too low anyway when it started its austerity push. The new Federal government is finding out that all its tough talk before the September election about delivering bigger surpluses than its predecessors is just hot air and the slowing economy is pushing the deficit higher not lower. In this environment, the labour market is precariously balanced and likely to continue to deteriorate. The EVI provides a guide to where the on-going job losses are likely to be across the urban and regional space.

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CofFEE Conference 2010 – Day 1 Report with update

Today is the first day of the 12th Path to Full Employment Conference/17th National Unemployment Conference in Newcastle, hosted by my research centre. As host I am tied up in the event but here are some snippets. All of the presentations in the parallel sessions have been very interesting. I also note some economic news out from the Australian Bureau of Statistics today for October 2010 which provide more news that the Australian economy is growing only modestly. More tomorrow. UPDATE: Audio file now available.

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CofFEE conference – Day 1 report

Today is the first day of the 11th Path to Full Employment Conference/16th National Unemployment Conference in Newcastle, hosted by my research centre. As host I am of-course tied up in the event but I thought it would be of interest to visitors to my blog to provide some feel for what has transpired today. I only focus on the plenary talks. The other presentations in the parallel sessions have all been very interesting.

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The CofFEE/URP Employment Vulnerability Index – with updates

Today I released a major new research report Red alert suburbs: An employment vulnerability index for Australia’s major urban regions which was the result of a collaboration with Scott Baum (URP, Griffith University) who I share a large ARC Discovery Grant with. The Report and its findings has already received front page coverage in the large Australian dailies – The Age and the Sydney Morning Herald.

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Welcome to the CofFEE blog

December 24 – things have gone quiet. But not at the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE). Today we launch our own CofFEE blog which will catalogue what we think of various things that happen in the economy, in politics and beyond. ankara escort çankaya escort çankaya escort escort bayan çankaya istanbul rus escort…
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Some discussion about taxation

Over the weekend, I was a presenter at a Fabian’s Society meeting which sought input on ‘alternative taxation policies’ under the general tenet of the need for the Australian government to raise revenue to ensure a socially just society. The other presenter was John Quiggin and I think we provided a good complementarity for the relatively large audience (for a Saturday afternoon – with football finals in progress!). Of course, my opening salvo was to reject the fundamental premise of the workshop – which is a premise that progressive commentators and activists seem unable to shed to the detriment of their argument. I indicated to the audience at the outset that the aim of taxation is generally not to raise more revenue for government, but, instead, to ensure the non-government sector has less spending capacity. More is not less. That is a fundamentally different frame in which to discuss the topic and I closed the workshop by suggesting that one of the single most important things that progressives can learn is to stop using terms like ‘taxpayers’ money’ when discussing fiscal policy. Using those type of terms immediately frames the discussion against progressive goals.

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The neoliberal destruction of Australia’s higher education system

Today, I am fully engaged in work commitments and so we have a guest blogger in the guise of Dr Scott Baum, who will soon be joining us at the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE) at the University of Newcastle as a senior research fellow. Scott has been one of my regular research colleagues over a long period of time and we currently hold ARC grant funding together to explore regional disparities as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Scott indicated that he would like to contribute occasionally and that provides some diversity of voice although the focus remains on advancing our understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its applications. Today he provides analysis of how lost the Australian tertiary education system has become in this neoliberal period. While focused on the Australian situation, the analysis unfortunately has relevance to higher education systems in most countries.

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A Just Transition framework is required to head off the climate denying Right

The recent federal election in Australia saw the conservative opposition coalition lose further seats in parliament building on their disastrous 2022 result. The coalition is made up of conservative urban types (the so-called Liberal Party) and the National party, which represents the rural lobby. The Nationals are essentially climate-change denialists and because the Liberals require them to have any hope to govern, the smaller rural lobby can dominate policy choices. To convince the Nationals to adopt a net-zero by 2050 stance, the Liberals had to agree to propose a shift to Nuclear power, which was neither realistic in a logistical sense or economic in a cost sense. The electorate clearly rejected that option at the recent election. Now the Liberals, who are facing an existential crisis after the devastating loss, has to make a choice – stick with the Nationals and jettison net zero or break the Coalition and pitch a climate policy that will be acceptable to voters. The problem is that neither option will deliver them electoral success. Progressives are enjoying some rare schadenfreude over this conservative dilemma. It seems that the British Labour Party has got itself into a similar dilemma, with pressure from the Right-wing Reform Party to water down its climate policy. But what is more interesting in the UK setting is the role played by Labour’s former Prime Minister, who is also now attacking ‘green’ stances. I predict that will not end well for Starmer and Co. Fortunately, the Australian Labor party, which is also in government is sticking to a more ambitious climate agenda, although, even then, it is not ambitious enough. However, governments that are pursuing a net zero agenda must provide security for communities and regions that will bear the brunt of the policies introduced. The resistance to change that political forces such as Reform UK exploit can be easily offset if governments accompany their net zero agenda with a Just Transition framework. However, there is an absence of policy development in that area.

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Australian voters face a Hobson’s Choice – just like voters around the world

Today, I am fully engaged in work commitments and so we have a guest blogger in the guise of Professor Scott Baum, who will soon be joining us at the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE) at the University of Newcastle as a senior research fellow. Scott has been one of my regular research colleagues over a long period of time and we currently hold ARC grant funding together to explore regional disparities as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic. Scott indicated that he would like to contribute occasionally and that provides some diversity of voice although the focus remains on advancing our understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its applications. Today he is going to talk about the dilemma facing Australian voters who will go to the polls at next week’s federal election – the so-called Hobson’s choice facing voters all over the world.

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The decline of economics education at our universities

Economics courses at university in Australia have been under threat for several decades now and many specialist degrees have been abandoned by universities as student enrolments declined. When the federal government merged the vocational higher education institutions (Colleges of Advanced Education) with the universities in the late 1980s, traditional economics faculties were swamped with half-baked ‘business’ courses in management, HRM, marketing and whatever which then attracted the aspiring ‘entrepreneurs’ who were told by the marketing literature that they would be fast-tracking into management careers in the corporate sector. The reality was that these programs did not equip the students to do very much at all (perhaps erect marketing displays in supermarkets!) but the impact on economics programs was devastating. The most recent Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Bulletin published on January 30, 2025 contained an article which bears on this issue – Where Have All the Economics Students Gone?. I discuss some of the implications of the decline in student numbers in economics and the lack of diversity that existing programs have for societal well-being.

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Delinking and degrowth

One of the issues that some on the Left raise when the topic ‘degrowth’ enters the conversation relates to the sense of elitism from the wealthy nations, which can now indulge in a bit of non-material aspiration amidst the large houses, two-or-three car garages, speed boats, lycra-clad journeys to coffee shops on $10,000 bicycles designed for racing but ridden around the corner … you get the message. The criticism is that such a bourgeois ‘movement’ has no correspondence with the needs and aspirations of citizens living in poorer nations with fundamental development challenges, not the least being food security and poverty. They thus reject the idea as another ‘woke’ issue. There is some truth in what they say but it is an inadequate stance given that the global economy is operating 1.7 times over regenerative capacity and urgent changes are required. That means we have to deal with the notion of dependency between ‘North’ and ‘South’, which takes us back to the colonial relations and beyond, as an integral part of the degrowth agenda. This is where the concept of ‘delinking’ comes in. Here are some preliminary notes on all that, which arise from research I am doing for my next book on these issues (probably coming out first quarter 2025).

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Australian government tax cuts – the most vulnerable are being hoodwinked

I am still catching up after being away in the UK last week. I will reflect on that trip in another blog post. So, today, we have a guest blogger in the guise of Professor Scott Baum from Griffith University who has been one of my regular research colleagues over a long period of time. He indicated that he would like to contribute occasionally and that provides some diversity of voice although the focus remains on advancing our understanding of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) and its applications. Today he is going to talk about income tax cuts and cost of living relief. Over to Scott …

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Lower British fiscal deficit gives the central government no more or no less capacity to net spend to reduce unemployment

It’s Wednesday and I am bound for London later today. We will see how that turns out having not travelled there since the beginning of the pandemic. I will take plenty of precautions to avoid Covid. But it will be good to catch up with friends in between several engagements, including my teaching responsibilities at the University of Helsinki, which I have been acquiting for the last few years via Zoom. Today, I reflect on the latest public finance data released by the British Office of National Statistics which shows the fiscal deficit is smaller than expected. Even progressive journalists have written this up as providing more scope for pre-election largesse to be provided. The fact that the fiscal balance is lower provides no more or no less scope for the government to net spend. The relevant questions that should be answered before such an assessment can be made are ignored by the journalists, including the fact that the unemployment rate is rising and the supply-driven inflation is falling fast. After some announcements of events in London and Europe, we have some violin music to end today’s post. There will be no blog post tomorrow as I will be in transit.

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Japan inflation now falling fast – monetary and fiscal policy settings have been vindicated

The latest information from Japan suggests that in December 2023, its inflation fell sharply for the second consecutive month and that one might conclude the inflation episode is coming to an end. The Bank of Japan made the assumption that this supply-side inflation was temporary and would subside fairly quickly once those constraints eased. And they were right. All the other central banks somehow convinced themselves that the inflation was demand-driven and have been needlessly pushing up interest rates. The experiment is nearly over and I think it is clear that the Japanese path was the sound one. At that point, the New Keynesian academics and officials should resign. After that, as it is Wednesday, we have some music to soothe our souls.

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Welcome to 2024 – the 20th year of my blog

Welcome to 2024. This marks the 20th year that my blog has been operating although there were a few years early on when I was experimenting with the technology etc and nothing much emerged. In continuous terms, the blog has been going for 15 uninterrupted years this year. Over that time, it has evolved from a 7-day a week commitment to a reduced offering. Here are my latest thoughts on how I will use the medium in the coming year.

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GIMMS London Event – Friday, January 26, 2024

As I previously indicated I am returning to Europe and the UK in a few weeks for the first time since the Covid pandemic began. I will provide further details in due course, but for now, here is a link to the first event I will be speaking at in London on Friday, January 26, 2024 that is organised by the wonderful women from GIMMS. See over for details and how you can get tickets to the event.

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Video conversation – Seeking Full Employment Without Falling Prey to Neoliberal Traps

Given I wrote a detailed CPI analysis yesterday (Wednesday), I am using today as if it was my Wednesday post where I cover a range of topics. I was criticised on social media last week for combining in last Wednesday’s post – Launching the CofFEE Financial Resilience Barometer – Version 1.0 (October 18, 2023) – scientific material (the research project results) with commentary on the current situation in the Middle East (and music etc). I was accused of trying to drum up traffic to the research site by including an unrelated discussion on a topical matter (the situation). The point is that in my usual Wednesday post I just roam free and write about all manner of topics that I have thought about in the previous week and which I don’t want to devote a full post too. I don’t play games such as clickbait etc. Anyway, today, I promote a video of a long interview I did in September that has just been released, talk about some framing issues and provide the usual musical segment to calm us all down.

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Degrowth, Deep adaptation and MMT – Part 3

This is the third part in a on-going series that I am writing about Deep Adaptation, Degrowth and related concepts, all of which are designed to provide some sort of pathway beyond the current mess that the world is in with respect to climate, inequality, poverty, excessive consumption, and excessive population growth. Today, I consider how Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) fits into the transition agenda and discuss the labour market dislocation that will accompany the transition to degrowth.

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About

(Photo taken in August 2013 in Kakadu National Park, NT, Australia) Bill Mitchell is a Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at the University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia. He is also a…

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